Number crunching for winners

Number crunching for winners

Looking to pick a winner in the Melbourne Cup? Max Hitchins reckons he has a foolproof system. He can even tell you which horse came first, second and third in every Melbourne Cup for the past 100 years. He isn’t much interested in other races.
Nanjing Night Net

There is so much data on the internet, he says, and you just need to do a bit of number crunching. Study the form by all means but it’s important to look at the past. Astrological influences can also play a part and bear in mind that jockey silks in gold and yellow are luckiest.

After a lot of research before Cup Day, he reduces his field to six horses. He says his system has been correct for 22 out of the past 24 years – that’s 91 per cent of the time.

He then selects a winner from the six horses. He claims he has got this right 14 of the past 24 times – that is a rate of 58 per cent. So, conversely, he is wrong 42 per cent of the time. Still, he is selling his selections on the morning of the race in a $9.95 e-book guide.

”I’m a devotee, some would say nutter,” he says.

”The reason I started doing this is that my mother-in-law said she always used to back the winner. I asked how she did it and she said she backed every horse each way. She wasted a lot of money just for the privilege of saying you picked the winner.”

At the time of Tuesday’s race, the moon is in the constellation of Cancer and in close aspect to Mercury, Saturn, and Uranus. Scorpio rules the tenth house, and contains Mercury and Mars. Is that clear?

That’s according to the astronomer Alison Moroney, whose syndicated column of predictions regularly reach more than a million Australians and New Zealanders, she says.

She dismisses detractors of astrology, saying they don’t understand the philosophy behind it.

She will make a prediction freely available on her website and has had good success at predicting usually at least two of the first three horses, she says. ”Sometimes it is difficult to predict the order they come in, which is why I sometimes suggest a quinella bet where the order doesn’t matter.”

John Croucher, a professor of statistics at Macquarie Graduate School of Management is one of the detractors. ”If there was any science in it, then all astrologers would give the same tip,” he says.

He also warns about reading too much into the odds on a horse, saying that is just a reflection of the amount of bets placed by punters and not a measure of performance.

This story Administrator ready to work first appeared on Nanjing Night Net.